Home BlogData Visualization Visualizing the Accuracy of Groundhog Day Predictions

Visualizing the Accuracy of Groundhog Day Predictions

by Morgan Stevens
Data viz for groundhog day

FiveThirtyEight, a data journalism website, has created a visualization illustrating how often Punxsutawney Phil, a groundhog in Pennsylvania, made an accurate prediction on Groundhog Day from 1994 to 2021. According to legend, if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow on the morning of February 2, winter will continue for six more weeks. If he does not, spring has arrived. FiveThirtyEight used data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to assess Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions based on whether U.S. regions experienced above or below average temperatures. According to the visualization, Punxsutawney Phil’s accuracy ranges from 50 percent in the South to only 39.3 percent in the Northwest and Northeast.

Take a look.

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